Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.004064 0.004272 0.004486 0.004721 0.004974 0.005238 0.005534
2025-01-05 0.003641 0.003946 0.004272 0.004648 0.005071 0.005534 0.006081
2025-01-12 0.003422 0.003786 0.004186 0.004661 0.005213 0.005838 0.006606
2025-01-19 0.003150 0.003537 0.003971 0.004497 0.005125 0.005855 0.006778
2025-01-26 0.003029 0.003447 0.003926 0.004519 0.005242 0.006106 0.007229
2025-02-02 0.002983 0.003439 0.003971 0.004643 0.005482 0.006509 0.007884
2025-02-09 0.002851 0.003320 0.003874 0.004586 0.005491 0.006621 0.008169
2025-02-16 0.002758 0.003242 0.003822 0.004579 0.005557 0.006802 0.008550
2025-02-23 0.002665 0.003159 0.003758 0.004550 0.005591 0.006941 0.008875
2025-03-02 0.002615 0.003127 0.003755 0.004598 0.005724 0.007212 0.009395
2025-03-09 0.002532 0.003049 0.003690 0.004561 0.005740 0.007324 0.009693
2025-03-16 0.002454 0.002975 0.003627 0.004522 0.005750 0.007425 0.009978
2025-03-23 0.002360 0.002879 0.003534 0.004442 0.005703 0.007449 0.010157
2025-03-30 0.002277 0.002794 0.003453 0.004375 0.005672 0.007494 0.010371
2025-04-06 0.002231 0.002755 0.003430 0.004387 0.005750 0.007696 0.010836
2025-04-13 0.002125 0.002635 0.003295 0.004236 0.005590 0.007541 0.010729
2025-04-20 0.002089 0.002606 0.003282 0.004256 0.005675 0.007753 0.011219
2025-04-27 0.002090 0.002627 0.003335 0.004371 0.005902 0.008191 0.012104
2025-05-04 0.002031 0.002565 0.003274 0.004318 0.005879 0.008239 0.012341
2025-05-11 0.001992 0.002528 0.003245 0.004311 0.005923 0.008394 0.012768
2025-05-18 0.001947 0.002483 0.003204 0.004285 0.005936 0.008499 0.013115
2025-05-25 0.001929 0.002472 0.003211 0.004329 0.006058 0.008785 0.013801
2025-06-01 0.001885 0.002427 0.003167 0.004295 0.006055 0.008866 0.014119